Another climate warning sign
'Murkier waters' ahead without climate data
Tuesday’s Newsrime
US carbon emissions had showed decline
but last year’s increase is a warning sign
more oil, coal and gas won’t help a bit
we’re running out of time to de-carbonize shit
Climate note
The Rhodium Group reported its preliminary findings for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions today. The headline that’s grabbing attention is a 2.4 percent increase in 2025. The report says that’s mostly because of cold weather, not Trump climate policies. But clearly it’s the wrong direction.
A few things in The Rhodium Group’s “Preliminary US Greenhouse Gas Emissions Estimates for 2025" jumped out at me.
Emissions also grew faster than the economy in 2025, with real GDP expanding by a projected 1.9%—reversing the decoupling of emissions and economic activity of the prior two years.
US emissions in 2025 were not meaningfully impacted by policies enacted by the 119th Congress and the Trump administration, but we project that those policy changes could have increasing effects in the years to come.
And concerns about the consumption aspect of data centers and other electricity demand increases are worth more exploration.
Higher natural gas prices and growing power demand boosted coal electricity generation, resulting in a 3.8% rise in power sector emissions.
The transportation section might be the silver lining. Even though we drove more miles as a people, the emission totals were flat. Hybrids, electric vehicles, and other technological advances help. I think about how quickly Waymo’s have become routine in Phoenix and what that means for the prospect of not needing your own vehicle in an urban setting.
Finally, the most troubling notions in the report is the growing lack of data. You change what you measure — or in this case — you don’t change what you don’t measure.
Beyond policy changes that will result in higher emissions, the Trump administration has also moved to stop collecting and reporting a multitude of data on GHG emissions and climate change. Two of these data products in particular—the EPA’s annual GHG inventory and its Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) for major emitting facilities—are integral inputs to our work. Typically, we would expect EPA to give the US its final GHG report card for 2025 in spring 2027. However, EPA only released the 2023 inventory earlier this year when compelled by a Freedom of Information Act request, and most of the work had already been completed under the Biden administration. Given the Trump administration’s hostility to collecting and reporting data related to climate change, we may not receive any further inventories under this administration.
The loss of this data means we are heading into murkier waters when it comes to understanding the second-largest emitter of GHGs in the world.
I have been planning a deep dive on the problems of coal and how tribal nations are involved on both sides of the equation. Report is a kick to move that higher on my list.